Between Labour, Reform and Jeremy Corbyn, what does Liverpool’s electoral future look like?

Dear readers — welcome to an action-packed Monday briefing. It’s been an eventful weekend — on Saturday, The Times’ article about the prospective Jeremy Corbyn and Zarah Sultana-led party quoted WhatsApps from Liverpool independent councillors, leading many to wonder what this could mean for the city’s electoral future. Make sure to read all about that in our big story below. 

Elsewhere in today’s edition, we have yet another Big Help update as Knowsley Foodbank — one of the organisations at the heart of the Big Help empire — hits crisis point, and the disappearance of a major Wirral Council figure. 

Catch up and coming up:

• Over the weekend, regular Post contributor Melissa Blease published a brilliant piece on Liverpool’s Pete Burns. A photo exhibition at Cafe Tabac is currently featuring images of the late great star. Read the piece to see some of the photographs and find out more details here.
• Last week’s Answers in The Post got plenty of you talking. We discussed whether it was possible to save Liverpool’s high streets, or if they needed some reinvention to work for modern life. Let us know what you think in the comments here.
• Coming up this week, we have another Answers in The Post from Laurence. This time we’re focusing on the River Mersey, and if it’s really any cleaner than in its 1980s nadir. Reports of record numbers of species seem to suggest the city’s “lifeblood” is pumping along nicely, but does a recent academic study suggest a blockage? 

The big story: Between Labour, Reform and Jeremy Corbyn, what does Liverpool’s electoral future look like?

Top line: With Reform now pulling ahead in safe Labour seats, Liverpool’s “left-wing” reputation looks in peril. But could a new socialist party change that? 

Context: At the start of July, a survey sent shockwaves through the city’s political establishment. A multilevel regression and post-stratification (MRP) poll from Find Out Now UK projected Reform to win in Walton. 

The previous week, YouGov’s headline-grabbing MRP poll had put Reform on track to win the most seats nationally, with Labour and the Conservatives left with just half the vote share between them. But the Liverpool detail provided corroboration and consternation. If Walton — once one of the safest seats in the country, where Labour’s Dan Carden won with 85% of the vote in 2019 — was under threat from Reform, then nowhere was safe.

Recriminations were swift. Alan Gibbons, independent councillor for Walton’s Orrell Park and Carden’s former CLP secretary, responded on X that the reason Carden’s 2019 — and 2017 — performances were so strong “was because our CLP Exec was 100% Corbyn-supporting socialists, out campaigning non-stop.” The poll showing Reform in a position to take Walton “happens when you have red Tories in charge”, referring to the current Labour leadership of Keir Starmer. 

But others blamed liberal policies from the political establishment. One account replied to Gibbons’ post that immigration had “enriched Liverpool beyond belief” with an infamous Liverpool Echo article from 2018 blaming unrest on Smithdown Road on “large waves of immigration from Roma communities across Eastern Europe”. 

Anti-immigration sentiment remains an issue across Merseyside. Almost a year ago, the fatal stabbings of three young girls in Southport precipitated riots across the country. Although the perpetrator was born in the UK, according to BBC Verify “unrest was fuelled by misinformation on social media that the suspect was an illegal migrant.” The year before, violence at asylum seekers erupted outside a hotel in Knowsley. 

Although this discontent with immigration policy has yet to translate into electoral upheaval, there are worrying signs that it is not limited to outbreaks of violence. Apart from the poll placing Reform first in Walton, there was also Reform’s win in nearby Runcorn and Helsby, not to mention the Nigel Farage-led party’s local by-election win in the Blackbrook ward of St Helens. Last year, Reform finished second place in a majority of Merseyside seats, including Bootle, Garston, Knowsley, St Helens North, St Helens South and Whiston, Wallasey, Walton, and West Derby, and had strong showings in Birkenhead and Southport.

For his part, Carden may well have anticipated these left-right attacks. Once part of the Socialist Campaign Group (SCG) parliamentary caucus alongside Riverside MP Kim Johnson, West Derby’s Ian Byrne and Jeremy Corbyn himself, he now leads Blue Labour: an ostensibly socially conservative and economically left-wing philosophy. Blue Labour seeks to tack right on issues like immigration while maintaining strong safety nets for working class people. 

“Imitation is the sincerest form of flattery”, as Alexander Hitchmough, spokesperson for Reform in Knowsley, told The Post earlier this year about Carden’s rightwards shift. And indeed, some left-wing voters may find this unpalatable, especially as Carden does not appear to be holding up the “economically left-wing” part of the Blue Labour bargain — last week, unlike his former SCG colleagues, he did not vote against the government’s welfare reform bill. 

Those voters disenchanted with Labour may soon have a new political home. Last week, Zarah Sultana, the LFC-supporting MP for Coventry South, appeared on X to announce that she and Jeremy Corbyn would be co-founding a new party, with other Independent MPs, campaigners and activists across the country.

In last year’s general election, several independent candidates allied with Corbyn and Sultana upset establishment incumbents, including Shokat Adam in Leicester South and Ayoub Khan Birmingham Perry Barr. A year before that, George Galloway upset Labour to briefly become Rochdale’s MP. 

Although these constituencies may have different demographics to their Liverpool counterparts, it’s notable that all these campaigns were at least partially based around opposition to Israel’s war on Gaza. And over the weekend, Liverpool Friends of Palestine and other sympathisers with the Palestinian cause held their 84th march through Liverpool city centre since the war began. These events have been attended by Corbyn himself and ally Andrew Feinstein, who ran against Keir Starmer in last year’s general election.

If The Times’ article over the weekend is to be believed, of course, Feinstein and Corbyn are in opposing tendencies before the new left party has even begun — although both later attended an event in Ilford for Leanne Mohamad, the Palestinian-British activist who almost unseated Wes Streeting at the last election. That same Times article puts Feinstein, Corbyn, and Mohamad in a WhatsApp group with Orrell Park’s Alan Gibbons, suggesting that Liverpool — already a place where independents have shown they can win council seats — will be a parliamentary target for the new party. 

Bottom line: Whether discontent with the political establishment’s positions on either immigration or foreign policy can translate into sustained smaller party gains in Liverpool remains to be seen. If Sultana and Corbyn’s as-yet unnamed group has suffered a shaky start, Reform never seem too far from chaos either — for examples, see its chairman’s resignation and rejoining earlier this year, the suspension of its MP Rupert Lowe, and a second MP James McMurdock resigning the whip just this weekend. That kind of national tumult could be seized on by experienced regional politicians, backed by a better-organised Labour Party. With several years before another general election, there’s no clear picture of what the city region — or the country — will look like electorally. But with Labour’s aura of invincibility in Liverpool — apparently insuperable last year — now broken by the Liberal Democrats’ January by-election victory, it’s no surprise that speculation continues to mount. 

Local festival returns

From today’s sponsor: Fancy a summer weekend of DJs, bands and festival fun? Newton Music Festival is offering just that from Friday 1st to Sunday 3rd August. The line-up includes Dave Haslam on Friday, The K’s on Saturday and Flash (a Queen tribute band) on Sunday, and is set to repeat the incredible success of last year’s festival. Hosted in the beautiful Mesnes Park, just a 15 minute train from Lime Street, Newton Music Festival has something for everyone. Day tickets start at £15 and Post readers can get an exclusive 10% discount using the code ‘1qjpad’ – click here to book.

We’ve just hired a new member of staff, Grace Moriarty, to oversee our sponsorships! If you’d like to sponsor some editions of The Post and reach over 32,000 readers, you can get in touch at grace@millmediaco.uk. 

Photo of the week

This photo on X by our reader Jeremy Hawthorn shows some heartfelt tributes outside Anfield to Diogo Jota, the Liverpool player who died in a car crash in Spain with his brother last week.

Have a photo to share? Email it to editor@livpost.co.uk for a chance to be featured in our Monday briefings.

Your Post briefing

Yet another update for those of you following Abi’s Big Help Project investigations. Over the weekend, Knowsley Foodbank — one of the many organisations under the Big Help umbrella — revealed it would be ceasing its services with immediate effect. In a message sent to staff, operations manager and charity trustee Antonia Bell said the foodbank had “come into serious financial problems” and as a result were unable to deliver any more food. “There are a lot of conversations that need to be had following this news,” she continued, “please bear with us as we try to figure out if we can move forward from this”. This news comes just weeks after our investigation into how former foodbank director and ex-Labour councillor Peter Mitchell launched yet another new organisation in the tax haven of Gibraltar, despite his Big Help empire descending into financial ruin. Know any more about this story? Email abi@livpost.co.uk. 

On the grapevine: Wirral Council’s director of regeneration is “absent from work until further notice” after council leader Paula Basnett launched an urgent investigation into a regeneration scheme he led last week. Marcus Shaw had been in charge of the council’s plans to revive Birkenhead and build thousands of homes, however after an initial review into the Birkenhead Town Centre project he has stepped back from his role while an inquiry takes place. While the scope of the investigation has not been revealed, deputy council leader Julie McManus suggested it would focus on why there were so many delays to council projects, and the financial ramifications of this. Know any more about this story? Email abi@livpost.co.uk with any tips or information.

The reopening of Woodside ferry terminal has been pushed back to autumn. The terminal first closed in 2022, before works began on a nearly £9 million project to renovate the site. Originally, the terminal was supposed to open over the summer, but a spokesperson for the Liverpool City Region Combined Authority confirmed last week that “manufacturing delays” had held the project up. Despite this, they insisted the terminal would be ready in time for the new £26 million Mersey Ferry, launching in the summer of 2026. 

And around £1 million will be spent to get Goodison Park stadium ready for the start of the Women’s Super League season later this year. Earlier this year, the men’s squad said goodbye to the 133-year-old stadium as they moved across to a new 53,000 seater arena at Bramley-Moore Dock. Initially, Goodison Park was going to be demolished, however after reconsideration it was decided the stadium would become home to the women’s football team instead. Colin Chong, Everton's stadium development director, said Goodison would have "a new lease of life" after a £1 million refurbishment — which includes decorating the stadium with the women’s team’s branding. 

Post Picks

🎨Tomorrow, Liverpool Independent Art School hosts another watercolour session — all materials provided. It starts at 10.30am. Find out more here.

🎸On Friday, Jacaranda Records presents a live performance from Yungblud in support of his new album, Idols. This show is strictly 14+ — find out more here.

🎭On Saturday, Future Yard hosts an outdoor cabaret and market in its beer garden. Tickets are £13.50 and the event is fully accessible. Find out more here.

Thanks again to Newton Music Festival for sponsoring this edition. Click here for tickets.