Labour voters in Runcorn feel they’re taken for granted. Reform is welcoming them with open arms

By Jon Egan

When grainy footage of MP Mike Amesbury's late night altercation with a constituent at a Frodsham taxi rank began to emerge on social media, feelings of disquiet and foreboding quickly began to circulate within the high command of the Labour Party. Before facts, eventualities and consequences could even be given cursory consideration, the dread word "by-election" was beginning to echo in the recesses of their troubled minds.

Following Amesbury's guilty plea at court last week on a charge of common assault, the potential for a by-election may well be settled on February 24th if, as seems highly possible, he receives a custodial or suspended custodial sentence. But even before Amesbury’s court appearance, it appeared as though the political parties were well advanced in their preparations for the looming electoral contest. Within days of Amesbury being charged, Reform UK had begun to distribute a leaflet and letter from its leader, Nigel Farage, to every house within the constituency. As a party source explained to The Observer:

“The Labour majority is massive, but when you look at the demographics in all areas, it is everything you would want for a Reform seat. If you wanted to win somewhere with such a large majority, you’d probably need an unpopular government, a bad economy and a scandal. Obviously, you’ve got all three.”